One of the challenges we all face when trying to handicap a horse race is comparing different distances and surfaces and tracks. Though speed figures and dosage and breeding stats have helped, they are still not perfect or even always reliable.
When you really think about it, that is all that handicapping consists of, it is just comparing each horse to the others and figuring out what each runner’s chances of winning might be. If you have a reliable way to compare runners and a good money management plan, then you should be a successful handicapper. The problem is, there is no magic formula and each person must figure this game out for him or herself.
There are ways to minimize the effect of so many variables in horse racing. One way is to limit the number of runners in a race that you will play. Only playing races with 7 or fewer horses will make it easier to sort things out, but usually the bigger the field the better the odds, so you may be giving up value for the sake of making your job easier. Another way to make things easier on yourself is to try to find races where there are fewer variables. Finding a race where none of the runners are shipping in or changing distance or barns is a big help, but once again, you will really be limiting yourself as far as the odds. Let’s face it, if the race is easier for you to handicap then it is easier for the competition, too.
My suggestion is to find a way to make comparisons and weight them based on past experience. A good way to do this is with a visual aid, like a ladder such as is found in Ladder Handicapping. Being able to use past history to know how important a class drop, distance change, or other change is to the outcome of the race gives you a big boost over the competition and you can still play races with large fields and many variables.
Let’s face it, when it comes to handicapping, easier isn’t always better and usually doesn’t pay well, either.
Author: Bill Peterson
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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